This excerpt from NewStories Founder Bob Stilger‘s book AfterNow: When We Cannot See the Future, Where Do We Begin? introduces the Berkana Two Loops model as a practical framework for understanding where we stand in times of profound systemic change. Stilger co-developed the Two Loops at a global gathering in Slovenia in 2002 and has used it with communities around the world ever since.
The model maps the natural arc of any system—the rise, peak, and decline of an old paradigm—alongside the emergence of something new. Rather than a theory of change, Stilger presents it as a map for orientation, helping people ask where they are in the larger story, what kind of work is needed right now, and where their own gifts fit. Drawing on years of working with communities in post-disaster Japan, the model shows how pioneers who step away from the old normal begin experimenting, form networks, deepen engagement in communities of practice, and gradually build the bridge that others can cross to something new.
Why it matters: In times of systemic change, people need orientation more than prescription—a way to locate themselves in a larger story and understand what work is theirs to do right now. By mapping how old systems decline while new ones emerge simultaneously, the model holds space for grief and possibility at the same time, honoring that the old is falling away even as something life-affirming begins to take root. The framework validates different roles—pioneers experimenting at the edges, those building networks and communities of practice, bridge-builders helping others cross—showing that transformation requires diverse contributions rather than a single heroic effort.
